Contemporary Geopolitical Changes and Democratic Transitions

[Originally published at Democracy & Society on October 15, 2018. Read the full article here.]

At a time when democracy is in recession and facing new challenges, it is worth looking back on essential literature written when democratic change was similarly challenged by authoritarian powers. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, by Guillermo O’Donnell and Phillippe Schmitter, was a paradigmatic publication that set parameters and expectations for democratic transitions in U.S. policy and for democratic opposition groups in many parts of the world. Looking with a contemporary critical lens, it’s clear the sands of time have eroded the model’s validity. However, with some adaptation, the model provides some direction for new international landscape.

O’Donnell and Schmitter’s model for transition to political democracy involves the processes of liberalization and democratization. These processes begin through agreements (pacts) struck by members of the ruling bloc and the opposition. For this to happen, “soft-liners” must arise in the ruling bloc, those who recognize the need for future legitimation through elections and seek reforms. As Adam Przeworski argues in an accompanying essay, this is due to a risk-averse mindset whereas “hard-liners”, who oppose reform, are risk immune. Hard-liners are either ideologically committed to the regime or benefit too much from the current regime. The soft-liners, on the other hand, recognize that the need for some degree of electoral legitimation to replace legitimacy based on coercion or social peace and economic development. Without some transition, they face the risk of violent revolution or civil war.

O’Donnell and Schmitter make at least two crucial assumptions. First, that the alternative to democracy is unsustainable in the long run or at least there exists the conditions that will convince the soft-liners that this is the case. This may have been true at the time O’Donnell and Schmitter were writing. In 1986, the Soviet Union was on the brink of collapse and the US and broader democratic international community was moving away from supporting authoritarian regimes out of necessity of the strategy of Soviet containment. As a result, democracy was more necessary for international foreign aid and the ideological hegemony of democracy could accelerate opposition mobilization. Finally, access to foreign aid bolstered domestic legitimacy by funding development and state policies. In short, long-term regime and personal survival would require democratic reform. Today, however, new avenues have arisen for the risk averse to rely on for security, legitimacy, and foreign aid.